Are Plugin Hybrids the Future of Cars?

Hey everyone, Jim here again.  I thought share some info on a recent forum we were asked to participate in.  On January 31st, the Center for American Progress held a panel discussion in Washington D.C. entitled “Plug-in Hybrids: the Future of Cars?”  Four panelists, covering a range of perspectives, spoke: General Motors, Honda, an expert battery consultant, and yours truly.

On a number of topics, all the panelists agreed.  Everyone concurred that batteries continue to be a major challenge for plug-ins, especially in terms of cost.  Everyone also agreed that no silver bullet exists to get our country out of its transportation energy quandary, and that a full portfolio of technologies and policies to improve fuel economy, reduce carbon from fuels, and reduce the total amount of driving (vehicle miles traveled, a.k.a. VMT) will be required.  In other words, successful plugins could help get us there, but they’re only one piece of the puzzle.

GM had an optimistic view of plugins, as demonstrated by their commitment to the Chevy Volt and Saturn Vue Green Line plugins.  In contrast, Honda made the case that the small additional fuel savings offered by a typical plugin over a comparable non-plugin hybrid isn’t worth the high price to consumers or Uncle Sam (who, in all likelihood, would have to incentivize at least the early vehicles to make them marketable).  Moreover, Honda questioned whether the enthusiasm for plugins would last, citing the ebb and flow of interest in other advanced vehicle technologies.

Battery expert Jack Deppe, from Deppe Consulting, characterized the batteries as making progress on durability, but that challenges remain, especially in terms of cost and safety.  With respect to the cost challenges, he thought we may see short range plugins (in the neighborhood of 10 miles) sooner than longer range (i.e., 40-mile) plugins, though even low-range plugins still face battery cost-related hurdles.  That said, he commended GM on their aggressive pursuit of the 40-mile Volt.

As for me, I discussed how plugins fit into the larger transportation/environment picture, and addressed the challenges this technology faces.  For those keeping score, those challenges are battery cost, safety, and durability, as well as the unknowns about the people who drive them (where they live, if they park on the street, when they’ll recharge, etc.).  I also addressed how over-hyping plugins stand to hurt this promising, but fledgling industry.

From an environmental perspective, the all-important questions is, of course, “how many, how soon?” and, to that, I raised the question of at what point “commercialization” becomes real.  Put more plainly, at what sales volume does greenwashing end and environmental progress begin?  To this last point, as reported by the Detroit News among others, GM announced at this forum that the Volt would be sold in the “tens of thousands” within a short period of its 2010 release.

GM will have a challenge on their hands delivering that many vehicles, that soon, but if they start there and deliver millions more over the years that follow, I won’t argue.  After all, the auto industry has historically been most innovative and effective in finding solutions when challenged.  I look forward to watching GM on this front.

Posted by: Jim

Comments

[Steve Hodgdon]

Jim,
One thing I haven't been able to figure out about the battery issue is why is that Toyota's RAV4 electric car ran far and well with its batteries 10 years ago, yet today battery technology has somehow become worse? Why can't car makers use the batteries that they used back then until they figure out how to make next-generation batteries? Am I missing something?

Steve

[Gene Mc Govern]

Mr. Johnson,

In regard to state emission limits:

Who or what is the environmental protection agency protecting?

[Harry Byfield]

The batteries will only last for the time you need to recharge and how many time. each time a batter is recharged the life is redused by % so the cost of the replacement batter need to be a add cost operation cost of the plug in car. I do thank its the best way to go. I would like to be able get plugin for testing

[Harry Byfield]

The batteries will only last for the time you need to recharge and how many time. each time a batter is recharged the life is redused by % so the cost of the replacement batter need to be a add cost operation cost of the plug in car. I do thank its the best way to go. I would like to be able get plugin for testing

[Rick Beaufait]

General Motors, along with the other major American automobile makers, are already late bringing plug-in hybrids to market.
It is time to pull your heads out of the sand, break out of the old status-quo, and really start to address the issue seriously.
The capacity is there, but where is the will power in upper management?
If upper management is too stodgy to accept change, then get rid of them. We need fresh new thought and sweat equity, to bring about the solutions we need now!
Get to work, there is no time to waste!

[Alex]

Ain't the nano-engineered lithium-ion battery of altair technologies the silver bullet ?

It has a really high life cycle, resist to a broad range of temperature and doesn't heat when you recharge it. It makes it a safe and robust solution for plug in hybrid.

GM refused to use it because they thought the production cost would not be low enough. Phoenix motorcars is now starting the production of electric cars using this battery. It will have over 100 miles of autonomy and over 200 miles with an extra battery pack and it will be able to recharge in 10 minutes. And it will be much more affordable then the tesla roadster.

Am I missing anything ?

[Linda]

I think that most of these companies have a vested interest in creating a new type of fuel that is relatively green in comparison to petrol, but that requires regular input from something that can be commercialised.

E.g. ethanol has to be constantly grown and people have to keep buying it, batteries have a limited life and so people have to buy more.

The worst nightmare for any car company would be for people to create their own energy to power their cars - probably by generating electricity that doesn't requires special plugs at a station.

Local energy production is more cost and energy efficient because there are no transfer costs (either through loss of volts by wires or transportation of ethanol by lorries).

[Hybrid]

Are you guys as sick of high fuel prices as I am? It's so sad that the US will spend 1,000,000,000 dollars a month on a war for oil yet they don't invest that much money into research for alternative transportation... you could higher so many scientists for that much money just think...

1,000,000,000 / 100,000 (Salary) = 10,000 Scientists

If you could get 10,000 scientist working for 1 year on the fuel crisis we would have a solution in no time... yet their greed is causing us to pay high fuel prices and pollute the environment even more...

I came by this http://www.aboutmyplanet.com/science-technology/improve-fuel-efficiency/ I found it interesting maybe you will too... driving on water seems like a bunch of ppl are trying to water down the gas with water somehow and get better fuel efficiency...

[Robert used cars]

"I think that most of these companies have a vested interest in creating a new type of fuel that is relatively green in comparison to petrol, but that requires regular input from something that can be commercialised."

I absolutely agree with this. This is like a drag race on who gets greener first.

[Armin]

The 10,000 scientist thing won't work.
Science is not like moving a mountain of bricks where 10,000 people could move the brick mountain 10,000 times faster than one person could. It's more like running a race. 10,000 runners, all of whom can finish a marathon in four hours, running together, will finish the marathon in about four hours.

[Costume jewelry collector]

I hope the hybrid cars really catch on. That would really set the planet in the right direction to reduce emissions.

[Brian ostrowiak]

Im still hoping that full electric cars are going to start being phased into the market... Much of the technology already exists

[noclegi Ustka]

I think that this kind of cars will become popular when petrol resources on earth will vanish.Looking forward it.

[copy wii games]

Hey there I really enjoyed reding your blog and its good that people are getting the word out on this technology. PLease feel free to visit my blog http://run-your-car-on-water.blogspot.com/

[Online Gambling]

I plan on buying a hybrid soon.